RUSSIA RISKS DESCENT INTO CYCLE OF RADICALISM, CHAOS.(Perspective)

Byline: STEVEN MERRITT MINER

In the 1930s, Crane Brinton, a political scientist, observed that revolutions tend to follow a certain course, much like illnesses. A great many revolutions have occurred since Brinton's book, but they have generally followed the pattern he discerned: The old regime is discredited; its replacement is ruled by moderates, who, in turn, are replaced by a more violent vein of radicals, and, in the end, the old regime is partly restored.

It now looks as though the Russian Revolution of 1991 is in danger of following Brinton's blueprint. The moderate government of President Boris N. Yeltsin is besieged by constantly escalating challenges it is finding increasingly difficult to manage. And during the past few months, opposition forces have begun to coalesce around the Russian Congress of People's Deputies.

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